NASA’s planetary defense teams are closely monitoring a recently discovered near-Earth object (NEO), asteroid 2024 YR4. Initially flagged as a potential impact risk for Earth, updated calculations have significantly lowered this threat. Current data now estimate the asteroid’s probability of striking Earth at just 0.28% on December 22, 2032. However, the likelihood of a collision with the Moon has slightly increased to 1%.
Refining the Asteroid’s Orbit
Ongoing observations continue to refine 2024 YR4’s trajectory, with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Sentry system providing real-time updates. While the asteroid does not currently pose a significant threat to Earth, astronomers remain vigilant in tracking its path to ensure the most accurate predictions and assess any future risks.
Classified as an Apollo-type NEO, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. It was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at its Chilean station in Río Hurtado.
Characteristics and Recent Close Approaches
Preliminary analyses suggest that 2024 YR4 is a stony S-type asteroid with a rotation period of approximately 19.5 minutes. Its most recent close approach occurred on December 25, 2024, when it passed at a distance of about 828,800 kilometers—roughly 2.16 times the distance between Earth and the Moon. The next significant approach is projected for December 17, 2028, offering astronomers another chance to gather critical data and refine the asteroid’s orbital parameters.
Ongoing Monitoring and Future Observations
Following initial impact risk assessments, international planetary defense protocols were activated, prompting global observatories to continuously monitor the asteroid’s trajectory. NASA has scheduled observations with the James Webb Space Telescope between March and May 2025 to obtain more precise measurements of its size and orbit.
While the current risk of an Earth impact in 2032 has been greatly reduced, continuous tracking remains crucial to detect any potential changes in 2024 YR4’s trajectory. Additionally, if the asteroid were to impact the Moon on December 22, 2032, it could create a visible event for lunar observers, providing valuable insights into asteroid collision dynamics.
As scientists work to refine their models and monitor near-Earth objects, 2024 YR4 serves as a reminder of the importance of planetary defense initiatives and the need for ongoing vigilance in tracking celestial bodies that pass close to our planet.
